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Ekonomická sladěnost České republiky s eurozónou ve světle finanční krize
Hájek, Jan ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This paper deals with the issue of synchronization of the Czech economy and the economy of the eurozone. The OCA theory which is key theoretical basis for the analysis contained in the paper is briefly described in the first part. In the second part cyclical and structural synchronization is evaluated by the means of correlation coefficients of the development of GDP, industrial production, inflation and interest rates. The obtained results show sufficient level of synchronization, impacts of the financial crisis also rather contributed to the current level of synchronization. Arguments for and against synchronization are discussed in the third part as well as mutual dependency of the both economies. Two quarters time lag of the Czech GDP growth rate behind the eurozone is discovered in the pre-crisis period. At the end OCA- index for the Czech Republic is recalculated, the value of the OCA-index for the Czech Republic is the lowest among tested countries.
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Ekonomická sladěnost České republiky s eurozónou ve světle finanční krize
Hájek, Jan ; Mertlík, Pavel (advisor) ; Cingl, Lubomír (referee)
This paper deals with the issue of synchronization of the Czech economy and the economy of the eurozone. The OCA theory which is key theoretical basis for the analysis contained in the paper is briefly described in the first part. In the second part cyclical and structural synchronization is evaluated by the means of correlation coefficients of the development of GDP, industrial production, inflation and interest rates. The obtained results show sufficient level of synchronization, impacts of the financial crisis also rather contributed to the current level of synchronization. Arguments for and against synchronization are discussed in the third part as well as mutual dependency of the both economies. Two quarters time lag of the Czech GDP growth rate behind the eurozone is discovered in the pre-crisis period. At the end OCA- index for the Czech Republic is recalculated, the value of the OCA-index for the Czech Republic is the lowest among tested countries.
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Exchange Rate Dynamics and its Effect on Macroeconomic Volatility in Selected CEE Countries
Audzei, Volha ; Brázdik, František
To understand the potential for forming an optimum currency area it is important to investigate the origins of macroeconomic volatility. We focus on the contribution of exchange rate shocks to macroeconomic volatility in selected Central and Eastern European countries. The contribution of the exchange rate shock relative to other shocks allows us to evaluate whether the Exchange rate is a source of volatility or a buffer against shocks as the theory suggests. The identification of the contributions is based on variance decomposition in two-country structural VAR models, which are identified by the sign restriction method. We identify countries where shocks are predominantly symmetric relative to the effective counterpart and countries where the contribution of real exchange rate shocks is strong. In general, for all the countries considered the results are consistent with the real exchange rate having a shock-absorbing nature. Finally, a significant role of symmetric monetary policy shocks in movements in real exchange rates is found for some of the countries.
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Sources of Asymmetric Shocks: The Exchange Rate or Other Culprits?
Skořepa, Michal ; Komárek, Luboš
We analyze and quantify the determinants of asymmetric shocks showing up in the form of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock generator. Second, we use data for 21 advanced and late-transition economies to gauge the extent to which medium-term bilateral real exchange rate variability can be explained by various fundamental factors. Using Bayesian model averaging, we find that out of 22 factors under consideration, four types of dissimilarities within a given pair of economies are likely to be included in the true model: dissimilarities as regards (i) financial development, (ii) per capita income growth, (iii) central bank independence, and (iv) the structure of the economy. A regression based on these four factors indicates that these factors explain about one third of the behavior of the three-year RER variability for the whole sample and almost half of the behavior of the three-year RER variability for the RERs involving specifically the euro. The remaining part of the total variability represents an estimate of the influence of the exchange rate market itself (together with the influence of fundamental price level or nominal exchange rate determinants not captured by the regressors used).
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Single currency and the Czech republic - advantages, disadvantages and level of preparedness
Trubačíková, Romana ; Čajka, Radek (advisor) ; Bolotov, Ilya (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyse the preparedness of the Czech Republic to adopt the single European currency called euro. The level of preparedeness is assessed not only in terms of meeting the Maastricht convergence criteria, but also in terms of real convergence with the euro area. Subsequently, the thesis deals with potential advantages and disadvantages connected to the introduction of the single currency in the Czech republic. The thesis also analyzes the impact of the introduction of the euro on individual indicators in Slovakia. Finally, there is a mention of the current debt crisis in the eurozone, which has a significant influence on the date of adoption of the euro in the Czech republic.
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Is common fiscal policy an essential condition for the functioning of the optimal currency area?
Fehér, Richard ; Mládek, Josef (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
This thesis deals with the adjustment mechanisms, which should mitigate the effects of assymetric shocks in monetary area. According to the theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCA), synchronization of business cycles has been observed as the cause of assymetry. Primarily we focused on the functionality of the adjustment mechanisms in the countries of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), whereas the impact of recent crises has shown that these mechanism do not work sufficiently. One possible reason is the fact, that in EMU there is no risk-sharing mechanism through fiscal transfers. Therefore, the work deals with fiscal policy in euro area, its possible reforms and offers the concept of fiscal federalism as one of the possible models for the fiscal structure in EMU. We analyzed how fiscal systems in the U.S., Australia and Canada were performing during recent crisis and how they could be an inspiration for prospective reforms in EMU.
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